Lung cancer trend in England for the period of 2002 to 2011 and projections of future burden until 2020

Olajide,Olufemi  O.; Field,John  K.; Davies,Michael  M.P.A.; Marcus,Michael   W.

doi:10.3892/ijo.2015.3049

Lung cancer trend in England for the period of 2002 to 2011 and projections of future burden until 2020

Authors:
- Olufemi O. Olajide
- John K. Field
- Michael M.P.A. Davies
- Michael W. Marcus
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Affiliations: Roy Castle Lung Cancer Research Programme, Department of Molecular and Clinical Cancer Medicine, Institute of Translational Medicine, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L3 9TA, UK
Published online on: June 15, 2015 https://doi.org/10.3892/ijo.2015.3049
Pages: 739-746

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Abstract

Lung cancer is the most common cancer in the world, therefore creating a huge public health concern. The aim of this study is to determine the change in age-standardised incidence rate trend of lung cancer in England between 2002 and 2011 and use these findings to anticipate the potential burden of the disease by gender in the year 2020. Lung cancer incidence data (ICD-10 code C33-34) from 2002 and 2011 and mid-year population estimates for the same period were obtained from Office of National Statistics. Age-standardised incidence rates were calculated, by gender and region. Poisson regression analysis was used to describe the time incidence trend and projections were estimated up to year 2020. A total of 318, 417 lung cancer cases were identified. Incidence rates decreased in men by an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of -1.0% and increased in women by +1.9%. Projection analysis showed that by year 2020, provided the rates remain the same, English women will have the same lung cancer incidence rates as their male counterparts. This study demonstrated that there would be 5,848 excess lung cancer cases by 2020 with female population accounting for 85% (4,996) of the excess cases. Therefore, in addition to the development of high quality preventive intervention strategies, future public health also needs to prioritise targets at the implementation phase, in a manner that engage women living in regions that have demonstrated very high AAPC values.

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